Decoupling speciation and extinction reveals both abiotic and biotic drivers shaped 250 million years of diversity in crocodile-line archosaurs.

Whereas living representatives of Pseudosuchia, crocodylians, number fewer than 30 species, more than 700 pseudosuchian species are known from their 250-million-year fossil record, displaying far greater ecomorphological diversity than their extant counterparts. With a new time-calibrated tree of >500 species, we use a phylogenetic framework to reveal that pseudosuchian evolutionary history and diversification dynamics were directly shaped by the interplay of abiotic and biotic processes over hundreds of millions of years, supported by information theory analyses. Speciation, but not extinction, is correlated with higher temperatures in terrestrial and marine lineages, with high sea level associated with heightened extinction in non-marine taxa. Low lineage diversity and increased speciation in non-marine species is consistent with opportunities for niche-filling, whereas increased competition may have led to elevated extinction rates. In marine lineages, competition via increased lineage diversity appears to have driven both speciation and extinction. Decoupling speciation and extinction, in combination with ecological partitioning, reveals a more complex picture of pseudosuchian evolution than previously understood. As the number of species threatened with extinction by anthropogenic climate change continues to rise, the fossil record provides a unique window into the drivers that led to clade success and those that may ultimately lead to extinction.

Ecological Transitions and the Shape of the Decapod Tree of Life.

Understanding the processes that shaped the distribution of species richness across the Tree of Life is a central macroevolutionary research agenda. Major ecological innovations, including transitions between habitats, may help to explain the striking asymmetries of diversity that are often observed between sister clades. Here, we test the impact of such transitions on speciation rates across decapod crustaceans, modeling diversification dynamics within a phylogenetic framework. Our results show that, while terrestrial lineages have higher speciation rates than either marine or freshwater lineages, there is no difference between mean speciation rates in marine and freshwater lineages across Decapoda. Partitioning our data by infraorder reveals that those clades with habitat heterogeneity have higher speciation rates in freshwater and terrestrial lineages, with freshwater rates up to 1.5 times faster than marine rates, and terrestrial rates approximately four times faster. This averaging out of marine and freshwater speciation rates results from the varying contributions of different clades to average speciation rates. However, with the exception of Caridea, we find no evidence for any causal relationship between habitat and speciation rate. Our results demonstrate that while statistical generalizations about ecological traits and evolutionary rates are valuable, there are many exceptions. Hence, while freshwater and terrestrial lineages typically speciate faster than their marine relatives, there are many atypically slow freshwater lineages and fast marine lineages across Decapoda. Future work on diversification patterns will benefit from the inclusion of fossil data, as well as additional ecological factors.